"TRT1, the state television broadcaster, reported that with almost 90% of the ballots counted, 59% of Turks voted 'Yes' to a package of constitutional amendments that would restructure the judiciary and increase civilian jurisdiction over the military, which has deposed four governments since 1960.

Opinion polls in the run-up to the vote suggested the result would be much closer, with a majority of surveys predicting the amendments would scrape through with just over 50% of the vote. Analysts said that if early polling holds, it would be a 'major boost' to the government heading into national elections expected to take place next summer.

'This is an overwhelming result, given opinion polls had pointed to a marginal 'Yes'... Clearly the undecided voters have come out and voted in favor of the continuation of the reform process,' said Simon Quijano-Evans, head of emerging-market strategy at Credit Agricole Cheuvreux SA in Vienna.

Many of the proposed amendments would improve individual liberties and protections, and those enjoy wide support.

But the package is controversial because it also would greatly expand the Constitutional Court and Turkey's top judicial body, until now bastions of secularist opposition to the government. As recently as 2008, the Constitutional Court came within one vote of shutting down the ruling Justice and Development party, or AKP, on grounds that it was a threat to Turkey's secular foundations. Opponents of the government worry Ankara would be able to pack the courts if the package passes, transforming the balance of power within the country.

"A vote for 'Yes' is a vote for the Islamists. They plan to change Turkey in a negative way," said Onur Sagunc, a 26-year old retail assistant. He said he voted "No" as soon as polls opened at 7 a.m."

...The amendments also would expand membership of the Constitutional Court to 17 judges from 11, and the powerful Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors to 22 members from seven. Given that new appointments would be made at a time when the AK party controls Parliament and President Abdullah Gü also is a member of that party, the political tenor of the courts could change dramatically.

Investors are looking to the poll for clues as to whether Mr. Erdogan's party will secure a third-term majority government at next year's national elections.

Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy have made clear their antipathy toward Turkey’s full membership of the European Union. The rejection has hit Erdogan hard, say people close to him. Having invested so much political capital to implement EU--dictated reforms, Erdogan now “feels a deep sense of personal betrayal,” says the longtime backer. The prime minister himself recently told diplomats: “If the motivation of the Turkish people for full membership in the EU decreases, it’s because of EU policies toward Turkey.”

Erdogan, says Byford, “seeks a fundamental change in [Turkey’s] relationship” with the West, to “an ally but not a subordinate.” He takes pride in the fact that Turkey has emerged stronger than ever from the economic crisis, says the former AKP M.P. Now his No. 1 goal is to make the people rather than generals the real arbiters of Turkey’s future. Those people will doubtless in time vote him down for arrogance and for his clumsy attempts to silence opposition. But if by that time Turkey is more at peace with itself and with its neighbors, then Erdogan’s gamble will have paid off handsomely.